The Top Ten Emerging Threats Every Police Department Must Prepare for in 2026

Law enforcement in the United States is entering a period of profound complexity. Crime is evolving in ways that outpace traditional policing models, driven by rapid technological change, the destabilizing effects of synthetic drugs, shifting public expectations, and new forms of social and economic strain. As 2026 approaches, police leaders face a widening threat landscape that demands sharper foresight, modernized systems, and deeper partnerships across agencies and communities.

This “Top Ten” assessment highlights the most pressing emerging threats shaping the future of policing in America—a roadmap for departments seeking to stay ahead of the curve rather than struggle from behind it.

1. AI-Driven Cybercrime and Deepfake Fraud

Artificial intelligence is accelerating criminal innovation. Fraudsters now use AI tools to create realistic voice clones, synthetic identities, and sophisticated deepfake media. Local agencies face a surge in AI-assisted phishing schemes, impersonation crimes, and cyber-enabled financial fraud. As research in the journal Laws notes, AI is dramatically expanding the scale and speed of cybercrime, challenging agencies that lack digital forensic capability or updated training.

2. Synthetic Drugs and the Continuing Fentanyl Crisis

Synthetic opioids remain the deadliest driver of overdose deaths nationwide. The 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment confirms that fentanyl and its analogues continue to dominate both the illicit market and overdose statistics. For police departments, this translates into sustained increases in overdose calls, risks of accidental exposure, and demands for coordinated responses with health agencies. Even in communities claiming improved crime numbers, synthetic drugs remain a destabilizing force.

3. Mental-Health and Crisis Calls Outpacing Patrol Resources

A growing share of 911 calls involve mental-health emergencies, homelessness, or addiction-related crises. Many agencies report that these calls now represent a substantial portion of daily workload. Without adequate co-responder programs or mental-health partnerships, officers are often thrust into situations they are not clinically trained to resolve. This expands liability, strains staffing, and diverts officers from proactive policing. National discussions around policing consistently highlight this pressure point as one of the most urgent structural challenges facing departments.

4. Recruitment Collapse and Officer Retention Crises

Many agencies report historic lows in new applicants and troubling levels of attrition. Veteran officers are retiring early, younger officers are leaving for better conditions elsewhere, and the hiring pipeline cannot keep pace. The result is reduced patrol staffing, slower response times, and increased burnout among remaining personnel. Without significant investment in recruitment, training, and officer wellness, the profession risks entering a multi-year staffing deficit.

5. Cyber Extortion and Ransomware Targeting Public Safety Systems

Smaller agencies and municipalities have become frequent targets of ransomware attacks and cyber extortion. When CAD systems, records databases, or digital evidence platforms are compromised, entire departments can be crippled. According to assessments from the Department of Homeland Security, criminal organizations increasingly rely on AI-enhanced tools to identify vulnerable public-sector targets. Police agencies with outdated servers or fragmented IT oversight face elevated risk.

6. Violent-Crime Clusters and Localized Hot Spots

National violent crime numbers tell an incomplete story. While many cities report declines, the Council on Criminal Justice finds that violence is becoming more concentrated geographically. Some neighborhoods face persistent gun crime, gang activity, or high-risk property crime while adjacent areas remain comparatively stable. This uneven distribution requires hyper-local strategies, precision policing, and real-time analytics to avoid a return to chronic urban violence.

7. Organized Auto Theft and Keyless-Entry Exploitation

Technological convenience has created opportunity. Criminal networks increasingly use electronic amplifiers, signal boosters, and hacking devices to bypass keyless ignition systems. Car theft rings now operate across jurisdictions, stealing vehicles to ship overseas or dismantle for parts. While auto theft is sometimes dismissed as a “property crime,” its organized nature and speed represent a growing threat for many regions.

8. Community Trust Pressures and Demands for Transparency

Public expectations around transparency and accountability continue to rise. Communities demand clarity on use-of-force decisions, body-worn camera policies, bias mitigation, and complaint investigations. Even as crime evolves technologically, police legitimacy remains rooted in trust. Departments unable to demonstrate consistent transparency risk widening divides that hinder cooperation, intelligence sharing, and effective community partnership.

9. Legacy Technology, Data Siloes, and Interagency Coordination Gaps

Many departments still operate with outdated systems—disconnected databases, slow evidence tracking, obsolete servers, or paper-heavy workflows. Fragmented technology hampers investigations and limits the speed at which officers can access critical information. Modern policing requires integrated data platforms, cloud-based case management, and cross-agency information sharing. Agencies that fail to modernize will struggle to manage 21st-century crime.

10. The Combined Effect: A National “Threat Matrix”

The most significant danger is not any single trend—it's the convergence of all of them. AI-driven fraud, synthetic drugs, officer shortages, cyber threats, violent-crime clusters, and crisis-response overload combine to form a systemic challenge. Agencies that address these threats in isolation will remain overwhelmed. Those that adopt a holistic, future-focused strategy—integrating technology, partnerships, officer support, and community engagement—will shape the next era of American policing.

Conclusion: Meeting the Moment

The next several years will define the future of law enforcement. The threats outlined above are real, verifiable, and already impacting departments nationwide. Agencies that embrace modernization, strengthen community relationships, invest in officer development, and prepare for technological transformation will be positioned to lead. Those who resist change risk falling behind a rapidly evolving threat environment.

Policing is entering a new chapter. The question is not whether these challenges will grow—but whether agencies will be ready.

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References

Council on Criminal Justice. (2025). Crime trends in U.S. cities: Mid-year 2025 update. Council on Criminal Justice. https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-mid-year-2025-update/

Drug Enforcement Administration. (2025). 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment. U.S. Department of Justice. https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/2025NationalDrugThreatAssessment.pdf

Lin, L. S. F. (2025). Organisational challenges in U.S. law enforcement’s response to AI-driven cybercrime and deepfake fraud. Laws, 14(4), 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/laws14040046

Schiliro, F. (2024). From crime to hypercrime: Evolving threats and law enforcement’s new mandate in the AI age. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.10995

United States Department of Homeland Security. (2024). Impact of artificial intelligence on criminal and illicit activities. DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/24_0927_ia_aep-impact-ai-on-criminal-and-illicit-activities.pdf

Actuate AI. (2025). New police technology 2025: The future of law enforcement. Actuate. https://actuate.ai/blogs/new-police-technology-2025-the-future-of-law-enforcement/

FORMER LEON COUNTY DEPUTY SHERIFF PLEADS GUILTY TO UNLAWFUL POSSESSION OF AN UNREGISTERED MACHINEGUN

TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA – Bill Ed Culpepper, Jr. 56, of Havana, Florida, has pleaded guilty to unlawful possession of an unregistered machinegun. John P. Heekin, United States Attorney for the Northern District of Florida announced the charge.

U.S. Attorney Heekin said: “When this defendant unlawfully possessed these firearms, he not only violated federal law, but also the public trust placed in him as a sworn law enforcement officer. No one is above the law, and my office will not hesitate to aggressively prosecute every violation of federal law that occurs in the Northern District of Florida.”

During a drug trafficking investigation of the defendant’s son, Garret Culpepper, additional probable cause developed to search the defendant’s residence in Havana, Florida. During the search, law enforcement located multiple unregistered machineguns as well as an unregistered rifle silencer.

Sentencing is scheduled for January 20, 2026, in federal court before Chief United States District Judge Allen C. Winsor in Tallahassee, Florida. Culpepper faces up to ten years’ imprisonment on the charges.

The case was investigated by the Tallahassee Police Department, the Drug Enforcement Administration and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. The case is being prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorney Eric K Mountin.

This case is part of Operation Take Back America a nationwide initiative that marshals the full resources of the Department of Justice to repel the invasion of illegal immigration, achieve the total elimination of cartels and transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), and protect our communities from the perpetrators of violent crime.

Man Pleads Guilty To Threatening To Murder Federal Agents

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – Johnathan Trent Thomas, 27, of Linwood, N.C., pleaded guilty in federal court today to making threats to murder federal officers to impede, intimidate, or interfere with the performance of their official duties, announced Russ Ferguson, U.S. Attorney for the Western District of North Carolina.

Cardell T. Morant, Special Agent in Charge of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in North Carolina and South Carolina, joins U.S. Attorney Ferguson in making today’s announcement.

According to filed court documents and court proceedings, six months ago, on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, at approximately 12:00 p.m., a caller, later identified as Thomas, contacted the Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department (CMPD) and threatened to kill Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and CMPD officers if immigration enforcement actions did not stop. During a second telephone call with a CMPD officer, Thomas warned that he was coming to Charlotte with armor piercing ammunition, night vision devices, and body armor to kill law enforcement officers and threatened to “shoot them all” if he observed anyone making arrests. Thomas was referencing arrests made previously by ICE federal agents on Albemarle Road in Charlotte.

Court documents show that Thomas stated that if a police officer pointed a gun at him, he was just going to open fire. He also said that he would “Swiss cheese” the officers if they were doing the same thing they did before, meaning making arrests. Thomas made additional threats to law enforcement, including that he had Tannerite (an explosive) all around his house if the police came, and referenced April 29, 2024, which is the date that four law enforcement officers were killed in the line of duty in Charlotte, warning that he “could do a whole lot better than that.”  Law enforcement executed a search warrant at Thomas’s residence, seizing three rifles, a handgun, and a variety of ammunition.  

According to court records, Thomas has an extensive history of threatening law enforcement, to include the Davidson County Sheriff’s Office and CMPD, and had previously followed CMPD officers in marked patrol cars while they were performing their official duties.

Thomas pleaded guilty to one count of threatening to murder federal law enforcement officers which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison. Thomas remains in federal custody. A sentencing date has not been set.

In making today’s announcement, U.S. Attorney Ferguson commended HSI for the investigation of the case and thanked the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Middle District of North Carolina, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the Davidson County Sheriff’s Office, the Waxhaw Police Department, and the Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department for their assistance.

Assistant U.S. Attorneys David Kelly and Stephanie Spaugh of the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Charlotte are prosecuting the case.

Ohio Man Indicted on Attempted Murder of a Federal Agent

CLEVELAND – An Ohio man now faces additional charges—including attempted murder of a federal officer—in connection with an Oct. 15 incident that resulted as federal officers attempted to serve an arrest warrant.

On Oct. 29, a federal grand jury in Cleveland returned a four-count indictment charging Larry Leon Dwight Wiley, 55, of Cleveland, with:

• Count 1 - Attempted Murder of a Federal Officer
• Count 2 - Assault on Federal Officers with a Deadly Weapon
• Count 3 – Using, Carrying, and Discharging a Firearm During and in Relation to a Crime of Violence
• Count 4 - Felon in Possession of a Firearm and Ammunition, for prior convictions that include Felonious Assault in 2010; Domestic Violence in 2009; Aggravated Robbery with Firearm Specification in 2000; Burglary in 1999; and Assault on a Police Officer in 1998.

According to the criminal complaint affidavit, on Oct. 15, members of the U.S. Marshals Service Northern Ohio Violent Fugitive Task Force went to an apartment unit in Cleveland to execute an arrest warrant on Wiley, who was wanted for felonious assault. Officers announced their presence as law enforcement and breached the door of the unit. Wiley, who was inside, allegedly fired a handgun in the direction of the officers, striking a deputy U.S. Marshal in the arm with a .380 caliber round. The deputy U.S. Marshal was immediately rushed to a nearby hospital where he received treatment for his injuries. Wiley then barricaded himself in the apartment, leading to a standoff that lasted several hours until he surrendered and was taken into custody.

If convicted, Wiley faces up to 20 years in prison for Counts 1 and 2; up to life in prison for Count 3; and up to 15 years in prison on Count 4. The defendant’s sentence will be determined by the Court after a review of factors unique to the case, including prior criminal record, role in the offense, and characteristics of the violation.

This case is being investigated by the FBI Cleveland Division, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), and the Cleveland Division of Police. The Cuyahoga County Sheriff’s Office also provided valuable assistance. The prosecution is being led by Assistant United States Attorneys Margaret A. Sweeney, Scott Zarzycki, and James P. Lewis for the Northern District of Ohio.

An indictment is merely an allegation. The defendant is presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law.

PENSACOLA MAN PLEADS GUILTY TO FEDERAL CHARGES FOR ATTEMPTING TO KILL AN ESCAMBIA COUNTY SHERIFF’S DEPUTY

PENSACOLA, FLORIDA – Darrion K. Finley, 21, of Pensacola, Florida, has pled guilty in federal court on charges related to a shooting incident in late 2024. John P. Heekin, United States Attorney for the Northern District of Florida announced the guilty plea.

The Indictment charged Finley with Possession of a Firearm by a Convicted Felon, Attempting to Kill an Escambia County Sheriff’s Deputy to Prevent Certain Communications, and Discharging a Firearm During and in Relation to a Crime of Violence.

U.S. Attorney Heekin said: “This case shows the deadly threats our brave men and women in law enforcement face every day as they fight to remove violent criminals from our communities. My office remains firmly committed to aggressively prosecuting those violent offenders, and we will stand shoulder to shoulder with our law enforcement partners in the fight to keep our streets safe.”

Court documents reveal that on December 17, 2024, the defendant was driving in Pensacola in a stolen vehicle.  When the Escambia County Sheriff’s Office attempted to conduct a traffic stop of the defendant, he accelerated and law enforcement began its vehicle pursuit.  The defendant was eventually stopped when a Deputy Sheriff conducted a precision immobilization technique on the stolen vehicle.  As the defendant and his vehicle were being stopped, he fired a 9 millimeter round into the Deputy’s vehicle.  The defendant then attempted to escape on foot, with his Glock 9 millimeter pistol and loaded extended magazine still in hand, but the Deputy released his K9 partner, who put the defendant down onto the ground.  The defendant, still armed, then tried to run but was shot by the Deputy.  The defendant survived his wounds and was thereafter indicted by a federal grand jury for his crimes.

Sentencing is scheduled on January 13, 2026, at 1:00 p.m. before United States District Judge T. Kent Wetherell II.  Finley faces up to life imprisonment. 

The case is being jointly investigated by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives; the Escambia County Sheriff’s Office; the State Attorney’s Office; and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement. The case is being prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorneys David L. Goldberg and Jessica S. Etherton.